In 2019, 16-year-old rapper Lil Tecca had one of the year’s biggest breakout hits with the No. 4-peaking Billboard Hot 100 smash “Ransom,” a fun hip-pop single with an eye-catching Lyrical Lemonade music video. It was Tecca’s first top 10 hit, and to date, still his last, as the rapper would not even reach the Hot 100’s top half again for the next half-decade.

But while Tecca has still yet to match the crossover success of his first big hit, he’s hardly faded away from the mainstream — he reached the Hot 100 a dozen times total before 2025, and made the top 10 of the Billboard 200 with four of his first five albums (2023’s No. 11-peaking TEC being the lone exception). And in 2025, he confirmed he was still a vital hitmaker with the Neptunes-reminiscent “Dark Thoughts” (reaching No. 28 on the Hot 100) and the Buggles-sampling “OWA OWA” (No. 50) — and now, he’s also got the highest-charting album of his career with those songs’ parent set, the No. 3-bowing Dopamine.

How did Tecca maintain and grow his early success? And what rap peers of his could follow a similar trajectory? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.

1. Lil Tecca reaches a career-best peak of No. 3 on the Billboard 200 this week with Dopamine, moving 48,000 units in its first week. On a scale from 1-10, how surprising is this first-week performance to you?

Kyle Denis: Maybe around a 6. If you’ve been paying attention to Lil Tecca’s recent momentum, especially around his pre-release singles like “Dark Thoughts” and “Owa Owa,” these numbers aren’t too surprising. 

Angel Diaz: I guess I would say a 3? You hear “Dark Thoughs” and “OWA OWA” everywhere. I’m more surprised that he didn’t push more units. Those tracks have gotten a lot of traction since he released them, and he and his team even decided to make them the first two songs on the album. 

Jason Lipshutz: A 4. If you’ve been paying attention to the streaming success of Dopamine singles “Dark Thoughts” and “OWA OWA” over the past few months, you would have assumed that Lil Tecca’s latest project could become his highest-charting album to date, even if nothing else from the album immediately took off with hip-hop listeners. “Ransom” was a bigger chart hit for Tecca, but the longevity of his latest hits, particularly “Dark Thoughts,” has been impressive, and suggested a wider interest in the New York rapper that helped him land a No. 3 debut.

Michael Saponara: I’d probably say about a 5. He notched a top 10 album and 40k-plus first-week sales with PLAN A last year, so I figured he’d continue to build on that trajectory, but adding a top five album to his resume and reaching No. 1 on the Top Rap Albums chart are nice feathers in the cap for Tecca with Dopamine.

Andrew Unterberger: 5 sounds right. It’d have been higher for me at the start of the year, but after the two advance hits, it was clear Tecca was going to have greater juice this time around. A No. 3 debut is still around the high end of what I might have predicted, though.

2. Before this album’s release, “Dark Thoughts” and “OWA OWA” had already brought Tecca back to the Hot 100’s top half for the first time since his “Ransom” breakthrough six years ago – which of the two songs do you find more interesting from him at this point in his career? 

Kyle Denis: I find most “Video Killed the Radio Star” samples incredibly derivative, so I’ll go with “Dark Thoughts,” which interestingly positions Tecca as a straight-up pop-rapper with a gifted ear for hooks. We knew that ear was there from “Ransom,” but hearing him float over Neptunes-lite production opens up a world of possibility for where he goes on the next album. 

Angel Diaz: I think both are two of the most interesting songs he’s made up until this point of his career — but I’m going to go with “OWA OWA” here because “Video Killed the Radio Star” sample is top of mind for me. I recently finally got a chance to watch the Yacht Rock documentary on HBO Max — where they talk about the advent of MTV and music videos having a hand in ending the subgenre’s run — and “Video” was, appropriately, the first clip the channel ever played.  

Jason Lipshutz: “OWA OWA” boasts a smart, pretty unexpected Buggles sample, but “Dark Thoughts” is the more complete song, as a stellar homage to the Neptunes’ sunnier early-00s masterworks that lets Tecca shine within the track’s melodic pockets. The whole affair beams with confidence, and nicely toes the line between old-school beat-making and more modern sing-rapping. And while both hits clock in at two minutes and change, “Dark Thoughts” has listeners reaching for the replay button more quickly.

Michael Saponara: “OWA OWA” boasts a smart, pretty unexpected Buggles sample, but “Dark Thoughts” is the more complete song, as a stellar homage to the Neptunes’ sunnier early-00s masterworks that lets Tecca shine within the track’s melodic pockets. The whole affair beams with confidence, and nicely toes the line between old-school beat-making and more modern sing-rapping. And while both hits clock in at two minutes and change, “Dark Thoughts” has listeners reaching for the replay button more quickly.

Andrew Unterberger: Definitely “Dark Thoughts.” It’s one of the most engaging pop songs of the year, and I love how in an era of void-skewing hip-hop singles, “Dark Thoughts” is actually a misdirection of a title for what’s a relatively upbeat single. Besides, Nicki Minaj and will.i.am already got to that “Video Killed the Radio Star” hook 15 years ago.

3. Many of Tecca’s peer rappers from his turn-of-the-decade breakthrough period have since fallen on hard times commercially. What do you think about him has allowed him to stay relevant and reach new heights this far into his career? 

Kyle Denis: I’d say it’s probably a combination of his consistency (he’s dropped five albums in five years!) and willingness to experiment and expand his sounds. Several of his peers might have balked at the top 40-facing production of “Dark Thoughts,” but Tecca embraced it without sacrificing his idiosyncrasies. Through that embrace, he found a really interesting pocket for himself across Dopamine, one that certainly sets him apart from his class from a sonic standpoint.

Angel Diaz: I think he’s been able to keep a core audience and the pop leanings on this recent project will certainly gain him some new ones. You gotta remember that each of his five albums debuted within the Top 15 of the Billboard 200 and his 2019 mixtape We Love You Tecca debuted at No. 4. The kid has a loyal fanbase and he just delivered the best project of his young career. 

Jason Lipshutz: Sometimes, it just takes enough swings of the bat to connect on the right stylistic evolution. Tecca has been consistently releasing projects over the past half-decade, and has explored different approaches to modern hip-hop across all of them — he’s still only 22 years old, and his youthful restlessness as an artist has served him well. “Dark Thoughts” and “OWA OWA” sound nothing like “Ransom,” but they were the right songs to connect with a wider audience, coming from an artist who’s been able to reinvent himself and still maintain a sizable listenership.

Michael Saponara: I think Tecca’s been able to organically build a fan base that will ride for him while his songwriting and sound mature throughout his 20s. We’ve seen so many artists explode onto the scene with a massive hit and then quickly fizzle out because listeners were fans of a song rather than them. So Tecca deserves a ton of credit for being able to build off of “Ransom” and cement himself as a fixture in rap. 

Andrew Unterberger: Hooks help! The main thing that “Ransom” and “Dark Thoughts” have in common is a chorus that sounds good, feels good and gets stuck in your head randomly. Tecca certainly knows his way around a refrain that’s clever, melodic and hooky — and that’s part of the hitmaking process that far too many rappers tend to wave off as incidental in 2025.

4. Now that Tecca has reached a new commercial peak, what kind of career move(s) would you advise him to make next? 

Kyle Denis: I’d love to see him hop on some other tracks, while continuing to prioritize pushing “Dark Thoughts.” With some diligence, the right timing, and a remix – Role Model could be a fun left-field choice, but a Doechii remix is probably the right call — “Dark Thoughts” could be Tecca’s first Hot 100 top 10 hit since “Ransom.” I’d also advise him to get a North American tour ready for the fall, or at least hop on a bigger artist’s trek – maybe he tags along with Wayne & Co.? 

Angel Diaz: Keep exploring production that uses unexpected samples. Magic always comes when you blend genres. To quote the great Steve Porcaro who was quoting someone else in that Yacht Rock documentary that I can’t recall at the moment – I think it was his late brother Jeff – but Tecca must always keep in mind that “the groove is a delicate thing.” 

Jason Lipshutz: Keep exploring, Tecca! Dopamine contains traces of the flow and production that he utilized on “Dark Thoughts,” but also toys around with dance, pop, trap and rage music, turning into a 41-minute listen that flies by without ever growing stale or repeating itself. Tecca’s adventurousness has been his greatest asset as a popular hip-hop artist, and has helped score his latest hit singles — he should protect that instinct.

Michael Saponara: I would say to continue doing what he’s doing because it’s working. With two albums in less than a year, maybe take the foot off the gas for a little while to make people miss you. Whenever he does return, I’d like to see him take a major swing at a commercial smash hit, while collaborating with a rap titan in the lane of Playboi Carti, Young Thug and Future. 

Andrew Unterberger: Look for more crossover opportunities! I don’t mean to just accept every feature/remix opportunity you’re offered — or to start being craven in your own offers — but look for places to reach new audiences. Find some unexpected festival billings. Maybe try to get on an award show, or a late-night show or two. Lil Tecca has definite appeal for both pop and alt audiences, but a lot of both types of fans probably still don’t know much about him. Get out there and let ’em know.

5. Who’s another hitmaking rapper who’s been hanging around for at least a half-decade who you think may be due for a similarly head-turning commercial breakout like this? 

Kyle Denis: I’ll go with JID. He’s had some recent wins with “Enemy” and “Surround Sound,” but I think he could score his first Billboard 200 top 10 album with his next release if he plays his cards right. 

Angel Diaz: Not sure if it would be considered head-turning, but Baby Keem hasn’t dropped an album since 2021. Won’t be surprised if his next project debuts at No. 1.

Jason Lipshutz: I’ve been ready for the commercial resurgence of Polo G for years. Topping the Hot 100 with “RAPSTAR” was simply the cherry on top of a killer run around the beginning of the 2020s, full of gritty beats and storytelling bravado. Last year’s Hood Poet was solid, but Polo is too talented for “solid,” and deserves another mainstream moment.

Michael Saponara: I really hope it can be Chance The Rapper.

Andrew Unterberger: Aminé, for sure. His lone hit came even longer ago than Tecca’s — 2017’s “Caroline” — but he’s maintained a fanbase with a genre-hopping mentality that’s recently seen him excel in a kind of updated hip-house, with help from producers like Kaytranada and Lido. A breakout hit in this new mode feels very possible for him, and from there the sky’s the limit.